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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Lilia Bliznashka

Lily Bliznashka is a Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit. Her research focuses on assessing the effectiveness of multi-input nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions and the mechanisms through which they work to improve maternal and child health and nutrition globally. She has worked in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Director General’s Office (DGO)

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus

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Bio

Joe Glauber is a Research Fellow Emeritus in the Director General’s Office. His areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance, and trade.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Joe spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy, and regulatory issues; and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. From 2007 to 2009, Joe was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the “Blair House agreements,” leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Joe is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy, and US farm policy. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. He received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin and holds an bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from the University of Chicago.

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Publications

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Opinion Piece

The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later

2026Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; Dankevych, Vitalii
Details

The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later

The immediate impacts of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Ukraine’s agriculture sector were abrupt and widespread. Though Ukrainian producers have demonstrated remarkable resilience in wartime, evidence of long-term reductions in Ukraine’s grain exports has emerged. Russia’s grain exports surged early in the war, but today, weather and labor shortages are threatening Russia’s agricultural output—and its ability to utilize its food exports for global influence. Russia’s fertilizer exports confer additional economic and political advantage for Moscow, with fertilizer exports variably affected since 2022. How are the dynamics of war affecting global agriculture markets and global food security? How can Ukraine’s allies best support its agricultural recovery and long-term growth?

Year published

2026

Authors

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; Dankevych, Vitalii

Citation

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.; Broyaka, Antonina; and Dankevych, Vitalii. 2026. The Russia-Ukraine War and global food security: Impacts four years later. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies

Keywords

Food Security; War; Impact; Agricultural Sector

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Opinion Piece

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Report

Market concentration in agricultural industries

2026Goodwin, Barry K.; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Market concentration in agricultural industries

Mergers and acquisitions in agricultural input industries have led to high levels of concentration such that a small number of firms account for most sales. We examine the concentration in seed, fertilizer, and livestock markets. Policymakers have raised concerns that such concentration may worsen consumers’ and farmers’ welfare. Agricultural market concentration might increase market power, but it might also result from economies of scale, in which case aggregate welfare may improve. The ongoing debate over tariffs has complicated the situation since higher tariffs, as well as antidumping and countervailing duties, might increase input costs for farmers.

Year published

2026

Authors

Goodwin, Barry K.; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Goodwin, Barry K.; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2026. Market concentration in agricultural industries. AEI Report. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/market-concentration-in-agricultural-industries/

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Americas; Markets; Imperfect Competition; Market Structure; Monopolies; Agro-industrial Sector; Inputs; Farm Inputs; Market Concentration

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Working Paper

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

2025Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade

This paper examines how the recent shift in United States tariff policy could reshape global agricultural trade and influence the stability of food systems worldwide. Using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model, the analysis evaluates three policy scenarios that reflect the current trajectory of trade tensions: the North America scenario, the Liberation Day tariff package, and a renewed U.S.–China tariff confrontation. The scenario results reveal distinct lessons. The North America scenario shows that deeply integrated regional markets are extremely sensitive to tariff shocks, and even moderate tariff increases within North America lead to significant disruptions in agricultural trade and measurable welfare losses for Canada and Mexico. The Liberation Day scenario demonstrates that unilateral tariff escalation reduces U.S. competitiveness across a wide range of agricultural products and triggers substantial trade diversion toward countries with preferential access, particularly Mexico, which becomes the primary beneficiary of redirected U.S. import demand. The China scenario highlights that renewed U.S.–China tariff escalation produces severe distortions, especially in oilseed markets, as prohibitive tariffs drive China to shift its purchases almost entirely toward South American suppliers, sharply lowering U.S. export prices and fragmenting global supply chains. Across all scenarios, global agricultural trade contracts, supply chains become less efficient, and food systems become more exposed to climate and geopolitical shocks. These findings underscore the need for predictable and coordinated trade policies that limit uncertainty rather than amplify it. Strengthening trade diversification, investing in supply chain resilience, and aligning economic and geopolitical objectives remain essential for safeguarding global food security in an increasingly unstable trade environment.

Year published

2025

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Rueda, Jorge Armando; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2025. Rewriting the rules: How U.S. tariff paths could reshape global trade. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2379. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/178193

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Trade; Tariffs; Food Security; Food Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

How the Iran crisis affects fertilizer-dependent countries: The case of Mexico
Issue Post
 | 
April 20, 2026

How the Iran crisis affects fertilizer-dependent countries: The case of Mexico

By Valeria Piñeiro, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Jorge Amado Rueda, and Joseph Glauber

A challenging dynamic for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Will the Iran crisis lead to another round of food price spikes?
Issue Post
 | 
April 07, 2026

Will the Iran crisis lead to another round of food price spikes?

By Shawn Arita and Joseph Glauber

Key differences from past crises.

The Iran war's impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production
Issue Post
 | 
April 01, 2026

The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production

By Charlotte Hebebrand, Joseph Glauber, Rob Vos, and Brendan Rice

Supply chain disruptions reverberate.

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Events

AI for Food Security Forum
IFPRI at External Event

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April 30, 2026, 8:30 – 6:30 pm

AI for Food Security Forum

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Food Security Forum, brings together U.S. and global policymakers, technology developers, financers, researchers, and implementing partners working at the forefront of AI for food security. Join CSIS, and the member organizations of the AI Collaborative: Food Security, for cross-cutting discussions that explore the promises and risks of AI-enabled technologies for food […]

A Narrow Strait, Global Consequences: Hormuz Strait and Fertilizer Markets
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 23, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

A Narrow Strait, Global Consequences: Hormuz Strait and Fertilizer Markets

Fertilizer markets have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, where geopolitical risks intersect with highly concentrated production, energy dependence, and fragile logistics. These risks are no longer hypothetical. The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for fertilizer trade, with around 35 percent of global urea flows, over one quarter of ammonia trade, just above […]

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 14, 2026, 9:00 – 11:00 am

Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems

While the global food system has largely adjusted to the disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers following the invasion of Ukraine, the new conflict in the Middle East introduces a new set of challenges at a time when markets and supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant […]

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News

April 10, 2026 | In the News

The Iran war’s agriculture shock isn’t over yet (Foreign Policy)

Foreign Policy quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber who notes that energy inputs are built into food costs at nearly every step, from production and processing through transportation and retail.

April 08, 2026 | In the News

How farmers are rising to a fertilizer shortfall (DW)

DW spoke with IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber and Avinash Kishore to discuss what farmers around the world are doing to save their crops in a situation of a global fertilizer shortage sparked by the war in Iran.

March 27, 2026 | In the News

The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices (AP)

AP quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber on how the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are tightening global fertilizer supplies. He warns farmers may switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops or apply less fertilizer, reducing yields.

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