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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Director General’s Office (DGO)

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus

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Bio

Joe Glauber is a Research Fellow Emeritus in the Director General’s Office. His areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance, and trade.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Joe spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy, and regulatory issues; and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. From 2007 to 2009, Joe was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the “Blair House agreements,” leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Joe is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy, and US farm policy. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. He received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin and holds an bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from the University of Chicago.

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Publications

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Opinion Piece

How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security?

2026Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security?

Attacks on agricultural infrastructure have been a defining feature of Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2022, causing record-level impacts on global food and fertilizer markets. However, recent attacks on shipping and export infrastructure in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov represent a heretofore unseen escalation in agriculture-related attacks by each country. Russia’s attacks on cargo ships and export infrastructure have largely suspended vessel traffic through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, previously responsible for approximately 90 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Ukraine’s attacks on major Russian ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have damaged grain export infrastructure and grain-carrying ships, leading Russia to suspend exports from its highest-capacity grain export terminals. These mutual attacks have made a significant proportion of the world’s wheat trade inaccessible to buyers and threaten global fertilizer trade—while reductions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Panama Canal further complicate agriculture trade routes.

Year published

2026

Authors

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Welsh, Caitlin; Curtis, Emma; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2026. How do the latest Black Sea attacks affect global food security? CSIS Opinion Piece. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-do-latest-black-sea-attacks-affect-global-food-security

Keywords

Black Sea; Conflicts; Food Security; Infrastructure; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Opinion Piece

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Book Chapter

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

2026Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; Laborde Debucquet, David
Details

Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Year published

2026

Authors

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; Laborde Debucquet, David

Citation

Piñeiro, Valeria; Gianatiempo, Juan Pablo; Glauber, Joseph W.; Rueda, Jorge; and Laborde Debucquet, David. 2026. Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world. In Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post-MC14, eds. Valeria Piñeiro, Simon Mevell, and Martin Piñeiro. Part One: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape and the WTO, Chapter 1.4, Pp. 63-83. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183464

Keywords

Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; Agricultural Trade; Impact; Production Factors; Welfare; Agricultural Products; Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-SA-3.0-IGO

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

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Book Chapter

State of the agricultural negotiations and prospects for progress at MC14

2026Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

State of the agricultural negotiations and prospects for progress at MC14

Agricultural negotiations have largely been stalemated since the collapse of the Doha Round in July 2008. Members have struggled to fulfil in its entirety the mandate set out in Article 20 of the Agreement on Agreement (AOA), as well as other relevant Ministerial mandates. With the exception of a few outcomes, including those on Public Stockholding and the administration of Tariff Rate Quotas at the Ninth Ministerial Conference (MC9) in Bali in 2013, on Export Competition at MC10 in Nairobi in 2015, and on export restrictions for food aid in MC12 in Geneva, there has not been any substantive outcome in the agriculture negotiations since they were launched in 2000. The prospects for a substantive outcome at MC14 in Yaoundé remained limited, as sharp divisions persisted among Members on several critical issues, while recent trade actions have added further strain to the multilateral trading system and risk undermining progress achieved over the past three decades. I begin by reviewing progress in the so-called pillars of the AOA: domestic support, market access, and export competition. I then consider the areas of contention during the Doha Round negotiations, specifically the special safeguard mechanism (SSM), cotton, public stockholding (PSH), and export restrictions. I conclude with a broad assessment of the chances for meaningful progress and discuss some potential avenues beyond Yaoundé.

Year published

2026

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W. 2026. State of the agricultural negotiations and prospects for progress at MC14. In Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post-MC14, eds. Valeria Piñeiro, Simon Mevell, and Martin Piñeiro. Part One: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape and the WTO, Chapter 1.2, Pp. 16-32. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183432

Keywords

Trade Agreements; Trade; Market Access; Exports

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-SA-3.0-IGO

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
Issue Post
 | 
September 18, 2026

How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

By Joseph Glauber and Shawn Arita

A mixed picture for global prices and supplies.

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices
Issue Post
 | 
August 03, 2026

Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices

By Joseph Glauber

A new set of problems roils markets.

Nigeria's fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict
Issue Post
 | 
June 22, 2026

Nigeria’s fuel, fertilizer, and food prices feel the strain of the Iran conflict

By Oliver Kiptoo Kirui, Adetunji Fasoranti, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Bedru Balana, Joseph Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, and Steven Were Omamo

A major energy producer faces complex impacts.

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Events

When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

October 1, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts

Also streaming on Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. The Black Sea region plays a critical role in global agricultural trade, supplying a significant share of internationally traded wheat, maize, and oilseeds. […]

Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post-MC14
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

June 30, 2026, 9:00 – 11:00 am

Agricultural Trade at a Crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African Perspectives for Post-MC14

Agricultural trade is facing an increasingly complex environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, climate pressures, and growing trade disruptions. These developments are reshaping trade flows, affecting food security, and challenging the ability of existing institutions and policy frameworks to respond effectively. These pressures are also creating new opportunities for developing regions to strengthen their competitiveness, resilience, […]

Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What’s Driving Food Commodity Markets?
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

June 23, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What’s Driving Food Commodity Markets?

Global food commodity markets are entering a new phase in which traditional indicators may no longer provide a clear view of market dynamics. While supply conditions for key crops appear quite promising, a closer look reveals a more complex picture—shaped by climate risks, macroeconomic pressures, and shifting market behavior. Join us for this seminar that […]

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News

September 11, 2026 | In the News

The threat of higher diesel prices to grocery bills (Washington Examiner)

Washington Examiner quoted Joseph Glauber in the article on the impact of fuel prices on food prices.

August 26, 2026 | In the News

The world has “slept through” the current crisis in the Black Sea — analysts (Voice of America)

The increase in attacks is posing a threat to global food security.

August 23, 2026 | In the News

The world’s breadbaskets are getting pounded by war, weather and trade spats (NYT)

The New York Times quotes IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber on the U.S. wheat prices and affordability.

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